North Korea Will Be Obama's Biggest Foreign Policy Challenge in 2011



The Yeonpyeong Island burning



The surprise North Korean shelling of  the Yeonpyeong Island (click to see map) was really not a surprise to anyone who has been watching North Korean internal political dynamics (as best as they can be watched).  If you assume the powers that be (and the powers that struggle with each other in Pyongyang these days for ultimate power) really do not care what the rest of the world thinks about them, that they can survive any embargo the world puts on them (as they have shown year after year) and that they believe China actually acts as a protector of sorts as opposed to a disciplinarian (which the rest of the world thinks they should and can be -- an assumption that I think is fundamentally wrong), then you have to wonder why people like former President Carter keeps yapping about the immediate need for the US to engage in deeper, richer negotiations with North Korea (his argument that NK has been consistent and deserves our respect is beyond laughable -- it is offensive).



27 year old Kim Jong-un



So what is going on with North Korea?  The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a stark list of numerous provocations by the North -- and each time the US and other eventually tries to patch things up, using the tried-and-never-quite-true method of "carrots and sticks" to get the North to behave better.  For those of us who remember the "Peanuts" cartoon, the vision of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown just as he attempts to kick the ball comes to mind (over and over again).  But at the heart of this latest violent outburst seems to be the internal succession struggle of having 27 year old Kim Jong-un taking power, with the assistance of a powerful family members, most notably his aunt and uncle.  And it appears that powerful forces within the North Korean general staff are more than a little nervous about having this young man -- and newly minted four star general -- taking control.  Robert Kaplan gets this clearly in his Financial Times piece.

And in fairness and justice to our intelligence agencies, they have been calling this bluff over and over again.  In today's Wall Street Journal, Michael Green and William Tobey make it abundantly clear that intelligence is not at fault here, just the policymakers.

All in all, succession is likely not to be settled in the near future - barring a coup by the NK general staff or a massive, violent put-down of that same general staff by the young Supreme Leader.  Either way, North Kora is shaping up to be President Obama's biggest foreign policy challenge in 2011 -- one he seems not particularly well prepared to deal with.  Unless President Obama makes a clear policy statement that North Korea is a threat not only to all of Asia-Pac but to the rest of the world and work more intensely to assemble a unified, global approach -- one that of course includes China but does not put all the responsibility on them -- then we are in for a rough ride.  And none of us want that.

Tajikistan - The Next Nation to Combust in An Already Inflamed Region?

The West has continually failed to understand the geography and culture of Central Asia. While most policymakers and "Talking HEads" seem to break Afghanistan and Pakistan into seemingly seperate areas of conflict, they do not look at the rest the region.  Tajikistan is a perfect example and Der Spiegel has just published an interesting piece on how an radical Islamic uprising is on the way, again.Tajikistan - The Next Kindling to be Added to the Fire...

The End of the Once Mighty British Navy...



HMS Kent (courtesy of Financial Times)



It appears it's finally over. The British Empire effectively geographically collapsed in the 1950's and 1960's as colonies sought and fought for independence.  India is the most notable example.  But Great Britain maintained a strong military, especially their legendary Navy.  We all grew up with the historical lore: the British Navy sailed the Seven Seas, controlling the Deep Blue from Hong Kong to India to the Suez Canal to the North Sea.  Nelson, Trafalgar, the sinking of the Bismark. The British Navy conquered the world. True,  for most of the last century, The Brits accepted the emergence of one of their former colonies enormous global navy -- the Americans emerged to rival the British and Teddy Roosevelt's orders to send the US Navy around the world to project our power was a seminal moment.  But we were (and are) proud allies and our interests were (and are) essentially aligned.

Today, the British Navy, under new budget proposals from Tory Prime Minister David Cameron this past Friday, will reduce the size of the British Navy to that of King Henry VIII.  Moreover, the UK's aircraft carriers will have no planes on them until 2018 - yes, you read that right: the British Navy's aircraft carriers will have no jets. Instead, they will simply carrier helicopters. They seem to be hinting that as a compromise, they will (gasp!) share the carriers with the French and have French Rafale jets possibly fill the void.



And it is not just the UK Navy.  The Royal Army is also facing intense cuts.  So much so that they are now seeking to develop a large array of decoy armaments (literal translation: inflatable tanks, inflatable armored personnel carriers, inflatable artillery).  The Russians -- another disappearing great power, has already

Russia's New "hot air" Military

launched a similar "hot air" strategy (see attached picture).

Needless to say, senior aadmirals and generals are pounding the table, threatening to quit, talking non-stop about the disturbing implications to the future of  "Great" Britain as they currently grapple with terrorists at home, a war with an uunflinching radicalized insurgency in Afghanistan. 

Britain is not alone.  The rest of the NATO members are slashing their defense budgets, seemingly pretending we are in peacetime.  The unilateral disarmament of the West has begun.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/7e575386-d670-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html

The Atlantic Magazine: The New Global Financial Order - The Seismic Changes Underway...

Excellent and fascinating research - really gets to the long-term global impact the financial crisis has created, the implications of which we've barely begun to comprehend. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/10/new-global-financial-order/64493/

Al-Qaeda Takes it to the Streets..

Steve Simon and Jonathan Stevenson have a very good piece in today's Washington Post on Al-Qaeda's evolving strategy of terror (see attached link).  In essence, what we saw in Mumbai is what we can expect in the future (and what we may have blessedly escaped in around Europe in recent weeks as an apparent combination of drone attacks in Pakistan and hardcore counter-terror efforts in France, the UK and even Germany rolled up).

German jihadi Eric Breininger,
reportedly recently killed in Pakistan.

What I find of particular concern is the fact that there appears to be a new class of Jihadis in training to carry out these attacks - specifically, Westerners who have converted to Islam and swallowed the radicalization poison, mostly I suspect as a way of getting back at the fractured Western culture they grew up in (divorce, alienation, rampant materialism and a general dehumanization of our lives).  Evidence of this is that amongst the successful drone attacks in Pakistan recently was one strike that reportedly killed five Germans -- blond, blue-eyed, native Germans.  If this is true and there is some sort of real spike in Western jihad converts, then the entire game has changed.  And we are not prepared as a country and a culture to deal with it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/08/AR2010100802664.html

Interpol Issues Arrest Warrents for Pakistani Officers for Mumbai Attacks

While this is not a surprise, it does give a deeper glimpse into the how corrupt and dangerous the Pakistani military is and what a threat they pose not only to achieving stability in Afghanistan but to the entire region.  The question really is what can the Pakistani government do to fix it? Answer: nothing.  Every day it moves deeper into chaos and failure.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8050866/Interpol-issues-Pakistan-army-arrest-warrants-over-Mumbai-attacks.html

Jones Departs; Donilon Steps in -- Is Obama's Foreign Policy Team in a Tailspin?



New National Security
Advisor Tom Donilon



A big day in the Obama White House - and for US foreign policy.  The question is can Donilon step up to the job or will he be, as Defense Secretary Bob Gates apparently told Bob Woodward in his latest book, "a disaster." 

Donilon is clearly a smart, experienced Washington player.  But reading that his recent jaunt to China two months ago with Larry Summers was his first visit to China and seeing his relatively thin foreign policy credentials -- former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Warren Christopher and later a senior executive at Fannie Mae (well, after all, it was the Chinese who bought huge tranches of Fannie debt, right?).  Watch for incoming Republicans to launch a particular new focus on Donilon's activities at Fannie, especially since he in charge of their then-vaunted lobbying operations in the Franklin Raines years.



Clearly, he's no Brent Scowcroft.  Or Zbignew Brezinski.  Or Steven Hadley.  Maybe more a Judge William Clark figure (Ronald Reagan's close and highly trusted friend).  What is particularly interesting is the ties to Vice President Biden -- Donilon's wife is chief of staff to 2nd Lady Dr. Jill Biden and his brother is an advisor to the Vice President.  Is this a signal Biden is asserting his foreign policy views in the Obama Administration?  This is going to be interesting...

ex-NSA General Jim Jones

And going forward, will be read interviews with new NSA Tom Donilon like the one General Jone's gave this week in Der Spiegel?  A bit doubtful.  Most of our NATO allies have little or no idea who Tom Donilon is -- the Chinese are just starting to.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,722139,00.html#ref=nlint