China or the United States? China Demands Neighbors Choose Their Friend

In yesterday's Financial Times, Gideon Rachman has a superb column outlining the great challenge of Asia Pacific today: Do you ally yourself with China or the United States?  Rachman sites a recent editorial in People's Daily that fired a shot across the bow of a number of AsiaPac countries currently militarily allied with the United States, calling them out for  “think(ing) as long as they can balance China with the help of US military power, they are free to do whatever they want."

South China Sea (map courtesy of Financial Times)

Rachman sites a recent statement by Japan and the Philippines which pledged to enhance maritime security measures and cooperation, especially in the resource-rich South China Sea - an area which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cited in a statement earlier this year as an area of " national interest" to the US (much to the annoyance of Beijing).


The significance of China's statement -- which, being published in the People's Daily must be considered official policy -- is Beijing is willing to take greater advantage of the US's economic weakness and challenge the US for supremacy in greater Asia Pacific.  The irony of all this is, of course, the fact that China's purchasing of US Treasury bonds and notes effectively is funding the development and operations of the US military - a fact not lost on Beijing.

The larger question going forward is does Washington - the Obama Administration and to a lesser degree, Congress -- understand the enormous geopolitical shift that is in play here with Bejing's challenge, our fiscal crisis dragging on and the wavering confidence our allies in the region have in the US's commitment to them?

Bluntly speaking, we do not think so.  Aside from Secretary Clinton's statement and the consistent statements and actions from the Pacific Fleet, the White House and Congress seem to pay little or no attention to the region or the implications of China's intentions and statements.  We would have expected to hear at least some reference to all this in the current congressional debate over punitive China currency legislation.  But we are not.

With more than one third of all shipping globally traversing through the South China Sea, it is easy to see why China has their own security concerns to tend to.  But that does not excuse essentially threatening their neighbors into submission or demanding they decide who they will be friends with - the US or them - going forward.  If the Chinese want to be constructive -- and more importantly, show their leadership in AsiaPac -- then they should launch a new, fresh set of multi-national negotiations to reach a diplomatic resolution to the Sea.  Otherwise, they are herding the region down a path that will not end well for anyone.