More Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts: Majority of Americans Think Asia More Important Than Europe

The German Marshall Fund  (GMF) has released an extraordinary new survey showing for the first time that Americans now see Asia as more important to our their "national interests" than Europe.  Overall, 51 percent of US respondents said Asia more important.  Conversely, 52 percent of EU respondents said the US was most important to them while only 37 percent thought Asia was most important to Europe.

We are surprised the GMF survey has not gained wider attention and discussion.  For a nation that is predominately European in heritage to make this shift is very significant -- and does not speak well of Europe's future (or should we qualify that to "the European Unions future"?) and we would dare extrapolate this to include the future of NATO.

Why this sea change in public views? We believe it is simple: It is driven by the massive scale of economic realities -- manufacturing capabilities along with booming demographics (let's face it, Europeans are too scared and selfish to have children; Asians broadly see children as a blessing).   But we would also argue the US sees the EU broadly ineffective politically and militarily (it would be good to see what Americans - many who served in the military and were based in Europe - think about the future of Europe).

A couple of important points emerged in the survey:

The next generation of Americans have very different -- and more positive -- views of China than their parents. 59 percent of Americans between the age of 18-24 have a positive view of China as compared with only 33 percent of Americans between the age of  45-54 (we have to ask: Is this more reflection of hope for China's future vs. Experience with China in business and politics as opposed to youth vs. older folks?);

• Among Europeans who are living through the EU fiscal (and political) crisis, only 50 percent want to see a decrease in spending and implementation of austerity measures (how do they think this nightmare is going to be fixed?);
• Perhaps most damning of all, only 40 percent of those living in the Eurozone think the Euro has been good for them and their country.
• A majority of Turks who participated in the survey have negative views of the US and Europe.  And a plurality of Turks (43 percent vs. 33 percent) believe their Arab neighbor states are more important to their longer term economic and security interests than Europe (and while they think membership with the EU would be good, they seem to understand it is never going to happen).

The survey gives strong insights into where our world has already gone (but we have to admit, it is tough to see through the smoke and debris of the global economic meltdown and the ongoing political crisis' in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, Athens and Paris).

The GMF's Transatlantic Trends survey was conducted by TNS Opinion between May 25 and June 17, 2011, in the United States, Turkey, and 12 European Union member states: Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.