More Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts: Majority of Americans Think Asia More Important Than Europe

The German Marshall Fund  (GMF) has released an extraordinary new survey showing for the first time that Americans now see Asia as more important to our their "national interests" than Europe.  Overall, 51 percent of US respondents said Asia more important.  Conversely, 52 percent of EU respondents said the US was most important to them while only 37 percent thought Asia was most important to Europe.

We are surprised the GMF survey has not gained wider attention and discussion.  For a nation that is predominately European in heritage to make this shift is very significant -- and does not speak well of Europe's future (or should we qualify that to "the European Unions future"?) and we would dare extrapolate this to include the future of NATO.

Why this sea change in public views? We believe it is simple: It is driven by the massive scale of economic realities -- manufacturing capabilities along with booming demographics (let's face it, Europeans are too scared and selfish to have children; Asians broadly see children as a blessing).   But we would also argue the US sees the EU broadly ineffective politically and militarily (it would be good to see what Americans - many who served in the military and were based in Europe - think about the future of Europe).

A couple of important points emerged in the survey:

The next generation of Americans have very different -- and more positive -- views of China than their parents. 59 percent of Americans between the age of 18-24 have a positive view of China as compared with only 33 percent of Americans between the age of  45-54 (we have to ask: Is this more reflection of hope for China's future vs. Experience with China in business and politics as opposed to youth vs. older folks?);

• Among Europeans who are living through the EU fiscal (and political) crisis, only 50 percent want to see a decrease in spending and implementation of austerity measures (how do they think this nightmare is going to be fixed?);
• Perhaps most damning of all, only 40 percent of those living in the Eurozone think the Euro has been good for them and their country.
• A majority of Turks who participated in the survey have negative views of the US and Europe.  And a plurality of Turks (43 percent vs. 33 percent) believe their Arab neighbor states are more important to their longer term economic and security interests than Europe (and while they think membership with the EU would be good, they seem to understand it is never going to happen).

The survey gives strong insights into where our world has already gone (but we have to admit, it is tough to see through the smoke and debris of the global economic meltdown and the ongoing political crisis' in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, Athens and Paris).

The GMF's Transatlantic Trends survey was conducted by TNS Opinion between May 25 and June 17, 2011, in the United States, Turkey, and 12 European Union member states: Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

More Weekend Reading... Egypt and Her Future

The Arab Spring has brought new attention to Egypt as it leads the region in a popular revolt against corruption and repression. If there was one thing many of us realized as we sat glued to our televisions and computer screens watching the protests and rallies is that we really do not understand modern Egypt. If you want to get an excellent in-depth political view of this is fascinating country, then Tarek Osman's "Egypt on the Bring: From Nasser to Mubarak" is the book to read.

Obviously written before the uprising and Mubarak's resignation from government, it explains clearly what Nasser created and how, instead of empowering the peoples of Egypt, the country slid deeper into a stranglehold of nepotism and corruption. It also explains Egypt's foreign policy and her critical role in maintaining peace in the region. Well worth the read.

Let's Make a Deal! How Much for the Colliseum?

As we Tweeted yesterday about Greece, maybe they should sell themselves to China to get out of their yawning fiscal crisis.  Tongue was in cheek, of course, but I've seen several other commentaries/Tweets suggesting something similar for Greece - and now for Italy. 

All snide comments and jokes aside, we have to stop, take a deep breath and take note of the time warp in which China has come to dominate the world.  Yes, they are dominating and we need to acknowledge this fact: In Africa (for minerals and natural resources), in South America (for the same), throughout the rest of Asia (to the discomfort of India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam and others) and in the United States. 

Again, yes -- we must acknowledge this fact.  Whether it is exports to the US, owning our US Treasury's and GSE debt, hacking the living hell out of our corporations and US government websites and sizing up ways in which to dominate us on the next battlefield.  The economic growth China has experienced and continues to experience is stunning (see the chart below as a great overview - biggest surprise: How slowly India is moving up the list).

Where is the push back from the Obama Administration?  Where is the grand plan to deal with ultimate result of twenty years of globalization?  there is none.  And this is beyond worrying.   It is life altering and we must acknowledge it.  The world has literally turned upside down.  And we suspect it will continue turning over and over again.





Source: The Economist

 

Weekend Reading: Cheney on Cheney

Here is my recommendation for this weekend: Dick Cheney's memoir In My Time written by the former Vice President and his daughter (and former senior State Department official) Liz Cheney. 

No matter what you might think about Dick Cheney, this is an important read about a man who for more than 40 years played a key role in shaping US foreign - and domestic - policy.  Take away his eight years of service as Vice President and you  are reminded of his time as Defense Secretary for George G.W. Bush, his senior roles in House Republican Leadership, his tenure in the Nixon Administration.

While I'm still plowing through the book on my Kindle, the one thing that surprised me the most is how Cheney owes his entire career to Donald Rumsfeld.  Literally from the first days when Cheney rolled into town in his Volkswagen as a congressional fellow.  Rumsfeld constantly turned to him as a key aide and Cheney always performed.   I suspect it gives some deeper insight into their relationship during the Bush Administration.

What also is quite interesting is how Cheney wrote the the book with his eldest daughter, Liz.  Now seen by many as having taken up the mantel of her father and the next generation of Cheney politicos, she is feisty and deeply opinionated.  She's also seen as a leading spokesman for the neo-con foreign policy crowd - leaving me wondering how much of an influence she may have been behind the scenes when we watched Dick Cheney move from being a Nixon centrist to a Reagan Republican to the spear throwing, fire-breathing neo-conservative.  Well, I guess I need to finish the book to plumb these depths further.  And that will be my weekend reading -- hope you find it interesting, too.

The Great European Divorce?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou

The Los Angeles Times gets to the heart of the matter today, asking if the ultimate ending of the Greece fiscal and economic crisis is to have the EU cut them loose and kick them out.  It is the question everybody has been avoiding for months but incresasingly seems to be the ultimate outcome.  Yet, if Greece gets the boot, what about Italy?  Or Spain or Ireland or the other troubled EU members?  Is this their future?   Ugly questions and possibly ugly - and deadly - answers for the and the future of the EU. 

What also seems to be going unspoken is the demise of the socialist and quasi-socialist economic models the european nations adopted post-World War II.  They do not work and have greatly contributed to the current economic calamadity.  But one step at a time -- and the first step does indeed seem to be "goodbye Greece."