And We're Back!

Our apologies to anyone who has been reading this blog for the lack of posts.  We have been dealing with a very serious family illness and have been out of town for the last three months.  Look for an uptick in posts and conversations.  And please follow us on Twitter @watchdesk.  Thank you!

Weekend Reading (Even Though the Weekend is Half Over)....

I know, I know - it's already Saturday night and I'm just putting out my weekend reading recommendations.  Sorry. I have been out of town and just catching up now on my blogging. I've just picked up two books for the weekend and am looking forward to reading both of them them.  First, I grabbed a copy of  Deng-Xiaoping and the Transformation of China by Ezra Vogel.  It is, as they say, a hefty tome (928 pages) and I suspect I'll need the better part of the week to get through it (if I'm lucky being the slow reader that I am).  But Vogel has done such outstanding work on modern China over his long and distinguished career that it seems to be a very valuable read and important contribution to understanding how China has gotten where it is today.  This may be one of Vogel's finest works and although I am only about 100 pages into it, it is very impressive in its breath and sweep of history and of the man.

It can very much be argued that Deng was the man who propelled China into modernity and away from the nightmare of the Cultural Revolution and the Cult of Mao (it seems centuries ago now, doesn't it when you stop and look at China today).   He will always have on his hands the crushing oppression of Tianamen Square -- an action that will live in infamy.  A complex man with a very unique background (having lived and been educated in Paris for most of the 1920's), this book looks like a very interesting reevaluation of his life and times.

The other book I grabbed (onto my Kindle) is Tom Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum's analysis of the future of the United States entitled That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back.  The title says it all -- the authors argue (who is there to argue back?) that the United States has fallen behind the rest of the world in our competitive capabilities.  I recently read Mandelbaum's other recent book and one of our first weekend-reading recommendations (The Frugal-Superpower: Americas Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era) and found it enlightening and right on the mark.  Both Friedman from his many columns and Mandelbaum understand the United States has spent far beyond its means, lost sight of the extraordinarily fast-changing global marketplace and somehow lost our competitive edge. My suspicion is their book will essentially launch a boomlet of similar books, especially as we get closer to the 2012 presidential elections.

If any of you read either of these books, I am eager to hear your thoughts on them.  Hope you find these recommendations helpful!

Putting a Leash on the Drones?

We have never fully understood the ongoing debate amongst a certain set of lawyers and foreign policy experts over the use of drones against terrorists both on the Afghan-Pakistan region and more recently in other failed states and regions such as the successful drone strike against Anwar Al-Awlaqi.  

It appears the Obama Administration is becoming increasingly sensitive to these debates and questions regarding the US's extraterritorial rights to strike at these groups as they plan and prepare to strike the US or our interests around the world.  The US government has for the past decade relied on he congressionally approved Authorization for Use of Military Force (passed by Congress in late September 2001 immediately following the 9/11 attacks) and, more broadly, on the basic international law of self-defense.  All of these factors and reasons were reiterated by US Counter-Terrorism head John Brennan  Harvard Law School this past September 16th.

The latest proof of this wavering by the Obama Administration was reported today by David Ignatius who writes a more careful, thoughtful approach is being adopted.  One of the key reasons for this?

"This calibrated approach has reassured key U.S. allies, such as Britain, that have large Muslim immigrant populations and were worried about the blow-back from U.S. campaigns against al-Qaeda affiliates. “There was concern that it was a blanket approach,” concedes the U.S. official."

So, to be clear: Because we are worried about large Muslim immigrant populations getting angry over our taking an aggressive approach toward terrorism in their home countries we are pulling back on drone strikes?  If this is the case, then we have lost.  We have lost the war, we have lost "the West" and most of all, lost our sanity.  It is widely believed these people have come to the West for opportunity and to escape the very terror and chaos we are fighting.  If they are angered by our defense policies, then they should leave -- or we should not let them into our nations.  The once mighty UK seems to be lost now to the West -- drowned in their silly multi-culturalism, materialism, complete turn from faith and heritage.  Victoria's England has now become Londonistan's England - bowed and bent to meet the demands of their non-assimilating populations.


The US must recognize this tragedy and resist with all its might against following down this trail of stagnation and capitulation.  And it must continue fighting aggressively against terrorism wherever it may be found.  As we learned in the Cold War, there is no "containment" of ideas or ideals.  It was the vision of Ronald Reagan to radiate the virtues of freedom and human rights to the Eastern Bloc along with the determination to build a military capable of striking anywhere, anytime in defense of these ideals that ultimately thawed and transformed those labor camp nations into the prosperous, free countries we are allied with today. 

There is no containment of Islamic radicalism.  And there should be no containment of our drone policy to salve the feelings of hostile populations within our borders of our allies. Or we will all become like England.

China or the United States? China Demands Neighbors Choose Their Friend

In yesterday's Financial Times, Gideon Rachman has a superb column outlining the great challenge of Asia Pacific today: Do you ally yourself with China or the United States?  Rachman sites a recent editorial in People's Daily that fired a shot across the bow of a number of AsiaPac countries currently militarily allied with the United States, calling them out for  “think(ing) as long as they can balance China with the help of US military power, they are free to do whatever they want."

South China Sea (map courtesy of Financial Times)

Rachman sites a recent statement by Japan and the Philippines which pledged to enhance maritime security measures and cooperation, especially in the resource-rich South China Sea - an area which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cited in a statement earlier this year as an area of " national interest" to the US (much to the annoyance of Beijing).


The significance of China's statement -- which, being published in the People's Daily must be considered official policy -- is Beijing is willing to take greater advantage of the US's economic weakness and challenge the US for supremacy in greater Asia Pacific.  The irony of all this is, of course, the fact that China's purchasing of US Treasury bonds and notes effectively is funding the development and operations of the US military - a fact not lost on Beijing.

The larger question going forward is does Washington - the Obama Administration and to a lesser degree, Congress -- understand the enormous geopolitical shift that is in play here with Bejing's challenge, our fiscal crisis dragging on and the wavering confidence our allies in the region have in the US's commitment to them?

Bluntly speaking, we do not think so.  Aside from Secretary Clinton's statement and the consistent statements and actions from the Pacific Fleet, the White House and Congress seem to pay little or no attention to the region or the implications of China's intentions and statements.  We would have expected to hear at least some reference to all this in the current congressional debate over punitive China currency legislation.  But we are not.

With more than one third of all shipping globally traversing through the South China Sea, it is easy to see why China has their own security concerns to tend to.  But that does not excuse essentially threatening their neighbors into submission or demanding they decide who they will be friends with - the US or them - going forward.  If the Chinese want to be constructive -- and more importantly, show their leadership in AsiaPac -- then they should launch a new, fresh set of multi-national negotiations to reach a diplomatic resolution to the Sea.  Otherwise, they are herding the region down a path that will not end well for anyone.

Weekend Reading: Confidence-Men:Wall Street, Washington, and the Education of a President

Ron Suskind's Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington and the Education of a President is one of the more insightful and disturbing books to date on the inner-workings of the Obama White House. An important note right up front:  For whatever hairbrained reason, this White House's Communications shop gave Ron Suskind massive access to staff and to President Obama himself.  A bad idea that comes back to bitterly bite the Obama Administration.

As I read Suskind's book, I found myself wondering what every foreign minister must be thinking of this White House.  If they got their hands on this book, then they are going to be secretly smiling that this President and this White House are disorganized, immature rubes.  It is a wonder there have not been more foreign policy blow-ups.  I should stop here and just let you read the book for yourself.  Would be very interested in hearing your reactions.

The PRI's Grand Hope and the Future of US-Mexican Drug Interdiction Policy

The Atlantic Magazine has a fascinating profile on Enrique Peña Nieto, the governor of the State of Mexico.  First elected to the governorship in 2005, Peña Nieto has almost single handedly revived the hopes of the  Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) to regain the presidency which they lost in 2000 after 70 years in power.

Mexican Governor Peña Nieto

Peña Nieto,  beyond his good looks and being married to a beautiful Mexican television star, is riding the wave of anger and fear among the Mexican populace over the seemingly never-ending bloody drug wars.   The PRI, according to the Atlantic piece, has sought to cut deals with the drug lords in the past to keep the violence down and order in place.  Reading that little nugget immediately begs the question:  Is this Peña Nieto's policy, too? 

Observing the Obama Administration's Latin America policy -- and the US's relationship with Mexico in the wake of the Wikileaks disclosures which damanged ties at a critical time -- one has to ask what sort of relationship do we have with Peña Nieto?  Do we seek to develop, foster and build relations with the up and coming leadership in Mexico such as Peña Nieto?

The Drug Wars are in fact one of the more dangerous threats to US borders today.  Violence is under reported and treated as simply criminal outbursts - a mistake as it has led to significant sovereign instability in Mexico as well violence all along the US-Mexican border.

In a report released this week by the US Justice Department's National Drug Threat Assessment, Mexican drug cartels have expanded the scope of their U.S. operations over 300 percent in two years, from operating in at least 230 cities in 2008 to more than 1,000 cities in 2010.  The US has just installed a highly competent ambassador in Tony Wayne to Mexico but there is no way we can expect one man and his staff to deal with this situation and develop close working relationships with Peña Nieto and his peers.

More Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts: Majority of Americans Think Asia More Important Than Europe

The German Marshall Fund  (GMF) has released an extraordinary new survey showing for the first time that Americans now see Asia as more important to our their "national interests" than Europe.  Overall, 51 percent of US respondents said Asia more important.  Conversely, 52 percent of EU respondents said the US was most important to them while only 37 percent thought Asia was most important to Europe.

We are surprised the GMF survey has not gained wider attention and discussion.  For a nation that is predominately European in heritage to make this shift is very significant -- and does not speak well of Europe's future (or should we qualify that to "the European Unions future"?) and we would dare extrapolate this to include the future of NATO.

Why this sea change in public views? We believe it is simple: It is driven by the massive scale of economic realities -- manufacturing capabilities along with booming demographics (let's face it, Europeans are too scared and selfish to have children; Asians broadly see children as a blessing).   But we would also argue the US sees the EU broadly ineffective politically and militarily (it would be good to see what Americans - many who served in the military and were based in Europe - think about the future of Europe).

A couple of important points emerged in the survey:

The next generation of Americans have very different -- and more positive -- views of China than their parents. 59 percent of Americans between the age of 18-24 have a positive view of China as compared with only 33 percent of Americans between the age of  45-54 (we have to ask: Is this more reflection of hope for China's future vs. Experience with China in business and politics as opposed to youth vs. older folks?);

• Among Europeans who are living through the EU fiscal (and political) crisis, only 50 percent want to see a decrease in spending and implementation of austerity measures (how do they think this nightmare is going to be fixed?);
• Perhaps most damning of all, only 40 percent of those living in the Eurozone think the Euro has been good for them and their country.
• A majority of Turks who participated in the survey have negative views of the US and Europe.  And a plurality of Turks (43 percent vs. 33 percent) believe their Arab neighbor states are more important to their longer term economic and security interests than Europe (and while they think membership with the EU would be good, they seem to understand it is never going to happen).

The survey gives strong insights into where our world has already gone (but we have to admit, it is tough to see through the smoke and debris of the global economic meltdown and the ongoing political crisis' in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, Athens and Paris).

The GMF's Transatlantic Trends survey was conducted by TNS Opinion between May 25 and June 17, 2011, in the United States, Turkey, and 12 European Union member states: Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

More Weekend Reading... Egypt and Her Future

The Arab Spring has brought new attention to Egypt as it leads the region in a popular revolt against corruption and repression. If there was one thing many of us realized as we sat glued to our televisions and computer screens watching the protests and rallies is that we really do not understand modern Egypt. If you want to get an excellent in-depth political view of this is fascinating country, then Tarek Osman's "Egypt on the Bring: From Nasser to Mubarak" is the book to read.

Obviously written before the uprising and Mubarak's resignation from government, it explains clearly what Nasser created and how, instead of empowering the peoples of Egypt, the country slid deeper into a stranglehold of nepotism and corruption. It also explains Egypt's foreign policy and her critical role in maintaining peace in the region. Well worth the read.

Let's Make a Deal! How Much for the Colliseum?

As we Tweeted yesterday about Greece, maybe they should sell themselves to China to get out of their yawning fiscal crisis.  Tongue was in cheek, of course, but I've seen several other commentaries/Tweets suggesting something similar for Greece - and now for Italy. 

All snide comments and jokes aside, we have to stop, take a deep breath and take note of the time warp in which China has come to dominate the world.  Yes, they are dominating and we need to acknowledge this fact: In Africa (for minerals and natural resources), in South America (for the same), throughout the rest of Asia (to the discomfort of India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam and others) and in the United States. 

Again, yes -- we must acknowledge this fact.  Whether it is exports to the US, owning our US Treasury's and GSE debt, hacking the living hell out of our corporations and US government websites and sizing up ways in which to dominate us on the next battlefield.  The economic growth China has experienced and continues to experience is stunning (see the chart below as a great overview - biggest surprise: How slowly India is moving up the list).

Where is the push back from the Obama Administration?  Where is the grand plan to deal with ultimate result of twenty years of globalization?  there is none.  And this is beyond worrying.   It is life altering and we must acknowledge it.  The world has literally turned upside down.  And we suspect it will continue turning over and over again.





Source: The Economist

 

Weekend Reading: Cheney on Cheney

Here is my recommendation for this weekend: Dick Cheney's memoir In My Time written by the former Vice President and his daughter (and former senior State Department official) Liz Cheney. 

No matter what you might think about Dick Cheney, this is an important read about a man who for more than 40 years played a key role in shaping US foreign - and domestic - policy.  Take away his eight years of service as Vice President and you  are reminded of his time as Defense Secretary for George G.W. Bush, his senior roles in House Republican Leadership, his tenure in the Nixon Administration.

While I'm still plowing through the book on my Kindle, the one thing that surprised me the most is how Cheney owes his entire career to Donald Rumsfeld.  Literally from the first days when Cheney rolled into town in his Volkswagen as a congressional fellow.  Rumsfeld constantly turned to him as a key aide and Cheney always performed.   I suspect it gives some deeper insight into their relationship during the Bush Administration.

What also is quite interesting is how Cheney wrote the the book with his eldest daughter, Liz.  Now seen by many as having taken up the mantel of her father and the next generation of Cheney politicos, she is feisty and deeply opinionated.  She's also seen as a leading spokesman for the neo-con foreign policy crowd - leaving me wondering how much of an influence she may have been behind the scenes when we watched Dick Cheney move from being a Nixon centrist to a Reagan Republican to the spear throwing, fire-breathing neo-conservative.  Well, I guess I need to finish the book to plumb these depths further.  And that will be my weekend reading -- hope you find it interesting, too.

The Great European Divorce?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou

The Los Angeles Times gets to the heart of the matter today, asking if the ultimate ending of the Greece fiscal and economic crisis is to have the EU cut them loose and kick them out.  It is the question everybody has been avoiding for months but incresasingly seems to be the ultimate outcome.  Yet, if Greece gets the boot, what about Italy?  Or Spain or Ireland or the other troubled EU members?  Is this their future?   Ugly questions and possibly ugly - and deadly - answers for the and the future of the EU. 

What also seems to be going unspoken is the demise of the socialist and quasi-socialist economic models the european nations adopted post-World War II.  They do not work and have greatly contributed to the current economic calamadity.  But one step at a time -- and the first step does indeed seem to be "goodbye Greece."

Al Qaeda Tries to Harness Ricin for Bombs - But You Said Al Qaeda was Almost Dead?

A terrifying story in today's New York Times about how Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is working to create highly toxic (i.e. instantly deadly) ricin.  The goal: Pack explosives around the ricin and detonate them in public places causing a high death toll and extraordinary psychological fear and damage.

What is remarkable about this report is that President Obama and White House national security advisers were briefing a year ago about AQAP's efforts.   Yet, only weeks ago senior White House national security officials briefing the Washington Post on how Al Qaeda was on the verge of collapse following the death of Osama Bin Laden.  The question that needs to be asked - publicly - is not only who said this but why did they say it when they knew that Al Qaeda in Yemen is strong enough and well organized enough to reach out globally in their effort to obtain the key ingredients (castor beans, ricin, bomb making materials, etc.) to create this nightmare weapons of mass destruction.

Unfortunately, Washington is completely distracted by the debt crisis and now the chance to take a short holiday away from work (and the world).  But somebody has to start asking questions about this conflicting reports.

Americans Still Consider United States Great Nation

Considering the enormous challenges the United States has faced in recent years - massive economic crisis, two wars now lasting a decade, political crisis and a lack of national leadership - these numbers polling numbers from Pew are quite inspiring. 

What I found most interesting about the response is that 53 percent of those who responded believe the United States "is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others."  Nearly six-in-ten (57%) say that "as Americans, we can always find ways to solve our problems and get what we want." Just 37% say "this country can't solve many of its important problems."   Congress and the White House surely understand these voters are not just optimistic folk but also activitist -- they are not just hoping for problems to be solved but expect them to be solved.

The last time Pew conducted this poll was 2004 and at that point 59% of respondents expressed confidence in the US's ability to deal with major problems.

But what I found of particular interest was the differentiation between liberals and conservatives in their views of the United States vs. the rest of the world.  Conservatives had a significantly higher view of American exceptionalism than liberals -- 62 percent to 19 precent when asked if they considered the United States "standing above all other countries."

Being less than a year and half away from the next presidential elections and control of the US Senate being decided, we have long felt foreign policy is going to become a critical decision point for voters.  If the US voters feel that President Obama has done nothing to solve our critical problems -- and the Democratically controlled Senate is conplicit -- both will be voted out of office.  Americans are proud of their nation and a great majority of Americans believe the US must be strong enough influence world events -- although that does not necessarily mean bombing tinpot despots like Ghaddafi in Libya with no strategic vision.   Hopefully, Pew will conduct this poll again several months in advance of the 2012 elections.  It will be quite interesting to see if these numbers have moved.

More Weekend Reading: IISS's 2011 Military Balance

Best in class. The International Institute for Strategic Studies' (IISS) The Military Balance is an annual assessment of the military capabilities and defence economics of 170 countries worldwide. Everything you want to know, need to know and  (probably never would have known) are inside the covers of this annual report.  Always good to have on the shelves as a superb reference book.

DR Congo: 48 rapes every hour, US study finds - where is the United Nations?

This is staggering and one of the most hellish statistics I have ever read. The Democratic Republic of the Congo seems to slide deeper and deeper into a hellish state.  The question that comes to mind is where is the United Nations?  This is a perfect example of how and where the UN should be stepping in to re-establish the rule of law and provide protection to those who are being destroyed at a rate like this -- 48 rapes per hour?? 

But when you step back for a moment and look at all the crisis' that have emerged around the world -- and the opportunities for reform and democracy to emerge such as Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, North Korea (a long list that seems to grow longer daily), the UN seems to be missing in action EVERYWHERE.  In years past, they at least gave the appearance and mouthed the words that they wanted to be involved.  But aside from a pointless resolution on Libya, the UN seems to have become more like a high school version of the model UN than the real thing.   And more surprisingly, the White House and President Obama have not tried to engage the UN in these efforts - quite surprising and something we hope to explore more on these pages in the weeks ahead.

Weekend Reading: The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan

I found this to be BingWest's very best book to date (and that's saying something if you've read any of his other excellent books). A tough, in the dust and blood walk though the war in Afghanistan to day. At times, the book is rightly painful as West exposes some of the more senseless tactical efforts in the first five years -- of which many failed and too many brave young American lives were taken or mained. Every member of Congress and every general who thinks he knows what is going on on the ground should read this excellent book. I'm betting the Pulitzer Prize Committee will be taking a close look at it, as well.

Weekend Reading: The Frugal Superpower

Being a self-confessed bookaholic, I thought maybe we should highlight and recommend some weekend reading each Wednesday.   In this week's (and our first) recommendation, Michael Mandelbaum offers a robust and in-depth explanations of an enormous national security threat of our own creation: the United States ever expanding out of control federal deficit. His conclusion is both dramatic and frighteningly on point: While a good portion of the world may dislike the seemingly all-powerful United States, they will soon come to regret the creation of a weakened United States due to grotesque fiscal profligacy -- in short, the United States is at risk of becoming a nation no longer capable of projecting soft or hard power globally. 

The book, which was published last year, is particularly timely as Congress and the White House exit a ridiculous squabble over the 2011 budget and begin to battle over the 2012 federal budget -- a debate which the White House seems to not take as seriously as they should.  Mandelbaum provides a good primer of how the global shifts could be significant and severe without the US getting their fiscal house in order.   If you want to get a deeper sense of what we are truly facing, then read this book.

China and Cybersecurity: The Growing Threat Everyone Seems to Ignore...

Adam Segel over at the Council on Foreign Relations has an interesting analysis analysis up on CFR's Website on the growing threat of Chinese cyber attacks. It's getting tough out there, folks -- China Inc, working with Chinese security services and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are swamping US corporations, the US government -- seemingly everything and anything with a computer attached to it.

At what point does the US officially and publicly begin to complain?

Is China the US's Answer to Both Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Patrick Doherty has an excellent piece in Foreign Policy.com today about the need for the US to engage China to engage Pakistan(Can Fixing Afghanistan Come Via China Fixing Pakistan?). Doherty makes a number of important points that can lead to a path toward reconstructing the US's policy toward Pakistan.  

"...there are two important points of convergence between Beijing's long-term interests and Washington's. First, China is concerned with preventing Islamist terrorism from disrupting its Central Asian energy routes and its restive western region, Xinjiang, which borders Pakistan. China is actively securing natural gas and oil reserves as far as Turkmenistan on the Caspian, rebuilding the old Soviet-era pipelines to feed its western frontier and crossing territory that hosts a majority Muslim population.

Secondly, China has a stake in promoting sustainable, pan-Asian prosperity in the medium-to-long term to fuel its torrid economic growth. China -- and neighboring India -- are undertaking a monumental frenzy of urbanization. A study prepared by McKinsey estimates that approximately 375 million Chinese and 250 million Indians will move from villages to cities over the next 20 years. This growth will require a substantial productivity increase across all economic sectors -- but along the China-India periphery, the question of whether this massive urbanization will be sustainable hinges on higher levels of food production."

I have read the McKinsey Study Doherty quotes and it is absolutley fascinating.  Leadership in Beijing painfully understands the point Dorhety and McKinsey make and are worried about it.  Hopefully, the US State Department and even US Treasury in theUS-China Economic Dialogue meetings this week have raised the point, too.
But it seems to me that if we can engage China to engage Pakistan, it may be a critical move to help the US in Afghanistan.  Moving quickly after the death of Osama Bin Laden and the positive impact it may have on the region and the war, the US should pursue this option vigorously.